基于灰色理论预测五阳矿未受采动影响煤层瓦斯含量

 采用邓氏关联度和广义综合关联度2种灰色关联分析方法对未受采动影响区域内煤层瓦斯含量的影响因素进行研究,并根据不同的影响因素分别建立了GM(1,7)、GM(1,6)和GM(1,5)瓦斯含量预测模型。研究结果表明,在五阳矿76、78采区未受采动影响的3#煤层中,30m底板砂泥岩比、地质构造、挥发分、灰分4个因素为影响其瓦斯含量的主要因素。由此建立的GM(1,5)模型瓦斯含量预测精度最高,可采用该模型对五阳矿76、78采区未受采动影响的3#煤层瓦斯含量进行预测。预测值能够为矿井瓦斯灾害的防治提供依据,对实现矿井的安全生产具有重要的现实意义。

Prediction of Gas Content in Coal Seam Without Being Perturbed by Mining Influence in Wuyang Mine Based on Gray Theory

From the geology exploration borehole data in the mining areas 76 and 78 of Wuyang Mine, eleven reliable boreholes are selected, together with data related with five influencing factors of the gas content, including the buried depth of the coal-bed, the rock properties of the coal seam (the ratio of the sandstone to the mudstone in the 30m coal seam roof and floor), the coal thickness, the geological structure and the degree of the coal metamorphism (volatile matter and ash). Two kinds of gray relational analysis methods are used-the Deng's relational degree and the generalized relational degree-- to study these influencing factors of the gas content in the coal seam under the condition of without mining, and the GM(1,7), GM(1,6) and GM(1,5) gas content prediction models are established. The results show that, for the case without mining affecting the coal seam, in the mining areas 76 and 78 of No.3 Wuyang Mine, the ratio of the sandstone to the mudstone in the 30m coal seam floor, the geological structure, the volatile matter and the ash are four main influencing factors of its gas content. The GM(1,5) gas content prediction model built by the four factors enjoys the highest prediction accuracy, which can be used to predict the gas content in cases without mining affecting coal seam in the mining areas 76 and 78 of No.3 Wuyang Mine. The predictive value can provide the basis for the prevention and the treatment of coal mine gas disasters, and also has important practical significance for the mine safe production.