| 考虑交通吸纳点的非参数回归组合型短时交通流预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张晓利,贺国光. 考虑交通吸纳点的非参数回归组合型短时交通流预测方法[J]. 系统工程, 2006, 24(12): 21-25 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张晓利 贺国光 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津大学,系统工程研究所,天津,300072;河北大学,管理学院,河北,保定,071002
2. 天津大学,系统工程研究所,天津,300072 |
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| 摘 要： | 在城市路网中．交通吸纳点是非常重要的影响交通流量的因素。由于交通吸纳点增加了流量预测的复杂度．一般基于模型的智能算法也不能很好地解决有吸纳点的交通流预测问题。提出一种基于非参数回归的组合方法PCA—FC—NPR．即在对原始数据进行主成分分析PCA（Principal Component Analysis）和模糊聚类FC（Fuzzy Clustering）的基础上．采用以数据驱动的k-近邻非参数回归方法NPR（Non-Parametric Regression）加以解决。针对交通吸蚋点与检测器的位置关系采取不同预测算法。短时交通漉预测示倒结果证明俄方法的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 预测 短时交通流 交通吸纳点 非参数回归 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4098（2006）12-0021-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-20 |
The Combined Forecasting Approach Based on Non-Parametric Regression for Short-term Traffic Flow of Roads with Parking Spaces |
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| ZHANG Xiao-li,HE Guo-guang. The Combined Forecasting Approach Based on Non-Parametric Regression for Short-term Traffic Flow of Roads with Parking Spaces[J]. Systems Engineering, 2006, 24(12): 21-25 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiao-li HE Guo-guang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Systems Engineering, Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China 2. School of Management, HeBei University,Baoding 071002,China |
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| Abstract: | Parking space is a important factor in city traffic flow.Due to its much complication,normal intellectualized(algorithms) are not competent.A combined method of PCA-FC-NPR is presented.It adopts PCA(Principal Component Analysis)and FC(Fuzzy Clustering)based on original data.Finally the data-driven method of NPR(Non-Parametric Regression) is used.The different forecasting approaches are adopted for parking space and detectors having different locations.A demonstration is given to show its availability. |
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| Keywords: | Forecasting Short-term Traffic Flow Parking spacer NPR |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
