网络效应新产品成功的关键:产品质量还是安装基础?

运用复杂网络方法开发了一个局部网络效应模型,主体采用新产品的效用包括取决于产品质量的内在价值和取决于产品在局部网络中流行程度的网络价值.结果表明新产品存在一个临界内在价值,低于该值时新产品扩散失败;高于该值时新产品扩散成功.初始阶段的安装基础不是决定扩散成功与否的关键,而是修正了临界内在价值的大小,而且这种作用很有限.此外,网络效应强度也是影响临界内在价值的重要因素.这些结论有助于企业制定有效的网络效应新产品战略.

Key Factor to Drive Success of New Product with Network Effects: Product Quality or Installed Base?

Which is the key factor to drive success of new product with network effects,product quality or installed base? The answer of this problem extremely influence what strategy the company will adopt.Based on the complex networks method,a local network effects model is introduced,in which the utility of the new product valued by each agent includes intrinsic value of depending on product quality and network value of depending on the popularity of the product in his personal network.The results show that the new product exist a threshold intrinsic value, which marks two diffusion patterns-diffusion success provided that the intrinsic value is above the threshold value,and otherwise diffusion failure.The installed base obtained in launch period is not the key factor of diffusion success. Its function is to moderate the threshold of intrinsic value in a limited way.Furthermore,the strength of network effects also affects the threshold of intrinsic value.These findings have important implications for firms that are developing effective strategies for new products with network effects.