考虑非税收入的税制结构对经济增长的影响以新疆为例

为研究新疆地区税制结构以及非税收入对经济增长的影响,建立了包含税收结构与非税收入的内生增长理论模型,并依据新疆1994～2018年度政府税收收入、非税收入以及地区生产总值(GDP)的数据构建了向量自回归模型(VAR),通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析研究了各变量的显著性和动态效应.研究结果表明:新疆地区资本税总体上有利于经济增长,劳动税对经济增长有抑制作用,消费税有略微负向影响,非税收入长期内不利于经济增长.因此新疆地方政府应该加强所得税相关政策实施监管,注重制造业发展困境,并加大非税收入的管理公开度.

Influence of the Tax Structure Considering Non-Tax Income on Economic GrowthTake Xinjiang as an Example

In order to study the impact of tax structure and non-tax income on economic growth in Xinjiang, this study established an endogenous growth theoretical model including tax structure and non-tax income, and constructed a vector auto regression(VAR) model based on the data of Xinjiang government tax revenue, non-tax income and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1994-2018. The model was analyzed by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The significance and dynamic effects of each variable were studied. The results show that: in general, capital tax in Xinjiang is conducive to economic growth, labor tax has the inhibitory effect on economic growth, consumption tax has a slightly negative impact, and non-tax income is not conducive to economic growth in the long term. Therefore, Xinjiang local government should strengthen the supervision of income tax related policies, pay attention to the development difficulties of manufacturing industry, and increase the management openness of non-tax revenue.