信息技术对农村一二三产业融合发展的影响及其非线性效应研究

利用2006～2017年省际层面的面板数据,测算了农村产业融合度,分析了信息技术对农村产业融合发展的非线性效应.研究发现:信息技术会显著提高农村产业融合度.分位数回归结果表明,信息技术对农村产业融合的促进作用表现为非线性递减特征,即在农村产业融合水平低的情况下信息技术对其促进更为显著.信息技术水平、经济发展水平与农村产业融合呈现非线性关系,且存在"单门槛效应",在经济发展水平跨越门槛值后,信息技术对农村产业融合促进作用减弱.因此,政府不仅要完善技术创新机制、强化技术渗透,还要施行差异化的农村产业融合发展政策.

Research on the Impact of Information Technology on the Integration of Rural Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Industries and its Nonlinear Effect

Based on the panel data of provincial level from 2006 to 2017, this study calculated the degree of rural industrial integration, and analyzed the non-linear effect of Information Technology on rural industrial integration development. This study found that the information technology can significantly improve the degree of rural industrial integration. The results of quantile regression show that the promotion effect of Information Technology on rural industrial integration is non-linear decreasing, that is, it is more significant when the level of rural industrial integration is low. The information technology level and the economic development level are nonlinear with the integration of rural industry, and there is "single threshold effect". After the level of economic development crosses the threshold, the promotion of information technology on the integration of rural industry weakens. Therefore, the government should not only perfect the technology innovation mechanism, strengthen the technology penetration, but also implement the differentiated rural industry integration development policy.