区域产业结构演进与城市化发展关系研究——以关中地区为例

目的探讨产业结构演进与城市化相互作用问题,为区域经济发展提供重要的理论依据。方法以关中地区为例,采用回归分析和钱纳里模型,分析了1949—2009年间关中地区产业结构演进与城市化的时序关系、相关关系和协调关系。结果关中地区产业结构演进与城市化进程具有明显的时序关系,可划分为快速起步、缓慢发展、稳步上升和快速发展4个阶段;在不同的发展阶段,各产业与城市化的相关关系不同;并且产业结构演进与城市化发展的不协调程度在加剧。结论低工业化水平和低劳动吸纳力是导致产业结构演进与城市化发展不协调的根本原因。因此,做大工业规模、提升工业生产技术水平是促进二者协调发展的根本途径。

The relationship between urbanization and industrial structure evolution:A case of the middle region in Shaanxi Province

Aim The evolution of industrial structure and the interaction of urbanization is a significant theoretical research and practical problem of regional economic development.Methods In this study,the middle region of Shaanxi,is analysed in terms of the relationships between industrial structure and urbaization,namely the relevant,harmnious and temporal relationships by using the methods of regression analysis and Chenery model on the data from 1949 to 2009.Results The consequence shows that the process of urbanization can be apparently divided into four stages;the relevant relationships between industrial structure and urbanization in various stages are various.And the inharmonious extent of industrial structure and urbanization is aggravating.Conclusion The root cause leading the mismatching of these two aspects is the low level of industrialization as well as the low labor absorbing power.To enlarge the scale of industries and promote the technology level in industries is the fundamental solution to realize the corrdinating development.