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基于非平稳的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征研究
引用本文:胡玉乾,胡磊,孙鹏,温庆志,冯安兰,刘威.基于非平稳的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2022,58(1):116-124.
作者姓名:胡玉乾  胡磊  孙鹏  温庆志  冯安兰  刘威
作者单位:1.安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,江淮流域地表过程与区域响应安徽省重点实验室,241002,安徽芜湖
基金项目:安徽省自然科学基金优青资助项目;大学生创新创业训练资助项目;安徽高校协同创新资助项目;安徽省科技重大专项资助项目;高校优秀青年人才支持计划项目;国家自然科学基金
摘    要:基于非平稳性标准化降水蒸散指数(non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,NSPEI)表征气象干旱程度,运用游程和Copula理论识别气象干旱特征演变规律,分析淮河流域干旱持续时间与烈度及干旱时间与强度的联合频率特征,并初步揭示干旱对植被覆盖度的影响.研究结果表明:1)淮河流域中部NSPEI较低,区域内68%的站点NSPEI呈上升趋势,淮河沿岸及其以南地区干旱程度增强;2)长历时、高强度的干旱事件主要集中在南部大别山区与蚌埠附近,高烈度干旱事件集中分布在中北部定陶附近,干旱事件历时集中在0.5~1.5个月,烈度基本<3,强度大多为10~30;3)干旱事件历时与烈度联合重现期低值(1.6 a)集中出现在信阳、蚌埠、菏泽附近地区,历时与强度联合重现期低值(1.7 a)同样集中出现在信阳、蚌埠站附近;4)1990—2015年淮河流域耕地面积减少2.01%,建设用地增加2.07%,土地利用类型变化集中在区域北部,区域内NDVI变化趋势通过95%显著性检验的面积仅占0.89%,植被覆盖度变化趋势不明显,干旱对其影响小. 

关 键 词:非平稳性标准化降水蒸散指数    游程理论    Copula函数    淮河流域
收稿时间:2021-11-28

Spatio-temporal evolution of drought events in Huaihe River Basin:a non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index study
HU Yuqian,HU Lei,SUN Peng,WEN Qingzhi,FENG Anlan,LIU Wei.Spatio-temporal evolution of drought events in Huaihe River Basin:a non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index study[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2022,58(1):116-124.
Authors:HU Yuqian  HU Lei  SUN Peng  WEN Qingzhi  FENG Anlan  LIU Wei
Institution:1.School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin, Anhui Province, 241002, Wuhu, Anhui, China2.Engineering Technology Research Center of Resources Environment and GIS, 241002, Wuhu, Anhui, China
Abstract:Drought is an extreme climatic event normally develops slowly but lasts quite long.With meteorological drought represented by non-stationary normalized precipitation evapotranspiration index, we identified evolution law with run theory and Copula function, analyzed combined frequency of drought duration and intensity, and examined effects of drought on vegetation cover.NSPEI in the middle of Huaihe River Basin was found to be low, 68% of the sites in the region were with an index on the rise, drought degree along the Huaihe River and in southern area was enhanced.Drought events with long duration and high intensity were found concentrated mainly near the southern Dabie Mountains and Bengbu, drought events with high intensity were concentrated near Dingtao in the central north.Drought events were concentrated within 0.5-1.5 months, with intensities of < 3, and strength of mostly within 10-30.The low value (1.6 a) of combined duration and intensity recurrence period of drought events was concentrated in Xinyang, Bengbu and Heze, the low value (1.7 a) of combined duration and intensity recurrence period was concentrated in Xinyang and Bengbu stations.Area of cultivated land in the Huaihe River Basin decreased by 2.01% fom 1990 to 2015, but construction land increased by 2.07%.Change of land use type was concentrated in the northern region.NDVI change trend in the region was 0.89%.Change trend of vegetation coverage was not obvious, effect of drought was low. 
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