青海省出口贸易格局演化及其影响因素解析

探索青海省1995—2019年出口贸易格局的演变态势，基于贸易引力模型，从经济自由度、文化差异、人口规模等方面研究青海省出口贸易格局的形成机制．研究表明:1）青海省的出口产品结构以技术水平较低的工业制成品为主，外贸依存度较低且在波动中逐渐下降；2）青海省出口格局呈现贸易伙伴多样化和出口规模均衡化的态势，与我国周边国家和其他大洲的大部分发展中国家建立了密切的贸易联系；3）影响青海省出口贸易格局演变过程的核心因素为双方经济体量、出口国人口数量、经济自由度、与中国的地理距离及宗教亲近，次要因素为出口国与中国的区域贸易协定．本文对青海省出口贸易发展提出了建议，以期对其未来的高质量发展模式提供支撑． 

Evolution of export trade in Qinghai and influencing factors

Since the start of “the reform and opening-up” policy, external trade of Qinghai has developed rapidly, but significant differences exist between external trade and internal trade with the rest or largely eastern part of China．The export trade of Qinghai is now still dominated by resource-intensive products．We investigated the evolution of geographic patterns of export trade in Qinghai from 1995 to 2019．We further studied the formation of geographic patterns of export trade in Qinghai from aspects of economic freedom, cultural differences, and population based on the gravity model of trade．Export was found to be dominated by manufactured products with lower technical level, the degree of foreign trade dependence was low and gradually declined fluctuatingly．Qinghai has established close trade ties with neighboring countries of China and developing countries in other continents．The trading partners were found to be diverse, but the scale of exports was relatively balanced．Factors such as population and economic freedom of trading partners were all found to affect evolution of the geographic patterns of export trade．Economic volume, population, economic freedom, geographical distance and religious closeness to China were found to be the core factors of trading countries, but regional trade agreement was only secondary factor．We would suggest further development of export trade to provide support for future high-quality development in Qinghai．