武陵山片区夏季暴雨天气统计分析与风险评估

选取1961-2008年武陵山片区18个气象观测站的逐日降水数据，通过线性回归、相关系数等统计方法，从时间和空间上分析了武陵山片区夏季暴雨天气的变化规律，并运用信息扩散技术计算出武陵山片区夏季暴雨天气风险的空间分布.结果显示，整个武陵山片区年平均暴雨日数呈上升趋势，区域内总体是东多西少、北多南少和中部高于边缘的分布特征；武陵山及附近地区受地形地貌和暴雨次数的影响暴雨量级较大，乌江、清江和资水等河流流域是武陵山片区暴雨气象灾害的重点预防区域.这对武陵山片区制定区域发展政策、防灾减灾及生态建设均有一定的指导意义.

Statistical Analysis and Risk Assessment of the Stormy Weather in Summer in Wuling-Mountain Area

Based on the daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological stations in Wuling-Mountain Area from 1961 to 2008,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the stormy weather in summer have been analyzed by statistical methods including linear regression and correlation coefficient, and the spatial variation of the risk of the stormy weather in summer has been calculated as well by using information diffusion technology. The results show that the annual mean number of stormy days in the whole Wuling-Mountain Area is on the rise, with more in the east, the north and the center, and less in the west, the south and the edge. Inaddition, due to the landform and the number of stormy days, the rainfall is higher in Wuling-Mountain and its surrounding region, with the river basins of Wujiang River, Qingjiang River and Zishui River being the key regions of meteorological disaster prevention. These findings have certain guiding significance for regional development policy formulation, disaster prevention and mitigation, and ecological construction in Wuling-Mountain area.