完工概率最大的伙伴挑选模型

为控制子项目具有随机完工时间的动态联盟企业的项目完工风险,研究在满足项目费用投资和子项目时序约束的条件下使项目完工概率最大的伙伴挑选问题.基于计划评审法(program evaluation and review technique,PERT)描述各子项目时序约束,并建立了相应的非线性整数规划模型,设计了嵌入PERT的遗传算法对问题进行求解,最后通过实例将设计的方法与枚举方法进行了对比分析,研究结果表明该方法在运行时间和效果方面的有效性,从而为随机情况下的动态联盟企业伙伴挑选问题提供了一种有效的管理工具.

A Partner Selection Model with Maximum Completion Probability

To control the competition risk of a project of virtual enterprise in dynamic alliance,of which the time to complete its subprojects is stochastic,the problem of partner selection is studied to maximize the completion probability of the project that is constrained by investment and the precedence of its subprojects,which is described on the basis of program evaluation and review technique(PERT).Then,a nonlinear integer-programming model is developed and a PERT-embedded genetic algorithm is designed to solve the problem.A case study is carried out to compare the proposed algorithm with enumeration algorithm.The results suggest that the proposed method is effective in both running time and performance,as a useful management instrument to select partner for a virtual enterprise in dynamic alliance under random conditions.