基于全球价值链的中国出口国内增加值需求理论测度及特征研究

利用2000-2014年世界投入产出表数据,使用假设抽取法测度了各国和地区对中国出口国内增加值需求的三个指标,即出口中被一国和地区直接使用的国内增加值(vaxd),出口中被一国和地区用于消费的国内增加值(vaxc)和出口中被一国和地区用于生产最终产品的国内增加值(vaxp)的区域和结构变化特征,并结合中国行业出口特征,贸易政策和参与全球价值链特征的变动对出口国内增加值需求变化特征进行了理论分析和实证分析.研究发现,在出口国内增加值的区域分布方面,发达国家的优势地位不断下降,发展中国家和新兴经济体所占份额不断上升.在结构特征方面,被一国和地区直接使用的国内增加值和被一国和地区用于消费的国内增加值在对美国、日本等主要发达国家的出口中占据较高比重,而被一国和地区用于生产最终产品的国内增加值占比很低.对变动特征进一步分析发现,先进货物行业和现代服务行业出口占比提升对出口国内增加值需求有显著的促进作用.在参与全球价值链特征方面,全球价值链相对前向参与度增长率和全球价值链相对地位增长率的提升均对三类出口国内增加值需求有显著的正向影响,其中对出口中被一国和地区用于生产最终产品的国内增加值的影响最大.

Theoretical measurement and characteristics research of domestic value-added demand of China's exports based on global value chain

Using the 2000-2014 World Input-Output Table data and the hypothesis extraction method to measure three indicators of domestic value-added demand of China's exports:The domestic value-added directly used by a country and region in exports (vaxd), the domestic value-added used by a country and region for consumption in exports (vaxc), and domestic value-added used by a country and region to produce final products in exports (vaxp). At the same time, combined with the exports characteristics of China's industry, trade policy and the changes of global value chain participation characteristics, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the characteristics of value-added demand. The study found that in the regional distribution of value-added demand of China's exports, the dominant position of major developed countries such as Japan and the United States is declining, and the share of developing countries and emerging economies is rising. In terms of structural characteristics, the domestic value-added directly used by a country and region and the domestic value-added used by a country and region for consumption account for a higher proportion of exports to developed countries, and the ratio of domestic value-added used by a country and region to produce final products is low. Further analysis of the changing characteristics found that the increase of the proportion of advanced goods industry and modern service industry exports can significantly promote the domestic value-added demand of exports. In terms of global value chain participation characteristics, the growth rate of relative forward participation of global value chain and the growth rate of relative global value chain position have significant positive effects on three types of domestic value-added demand of exports, among which the domestic value-added used by a country or region to produce final products in exports has the greatest impact.