中国城市房地产供给结构研究

本文在供给侧结构视角下,分别从产品层面和区域层面测度我国城市房地产供给结构水平,分析城市住宅-办公-商业的耦合协调关系,揭示城市房地产供给结构的平衡性、充分性、区域性和时序性特征.通过改进耦合协调度模型对2005-2017年的实证结果表明:1)我国城市房地产供给结构的平衡性较强但充分性较弱,整体平衡充分性水平偏低且城市差异显著;2)房地产供给结构的区域性特征明显,西北部、西南部和东北部城市的平衡充分性弱于东部地区,国家城市群中心城市的平衡充分性较强;3)房地产供给结构平衡充分性的城市差异在逐年收窄,城市房地产供给结构整体趋于平稳健康发展.现阶段提升住宅-办公-商业的协调度将有助于优化我国城市房地产的供给结构.

The evaluation of urban real estate supply structure in China

From the perspective of supply-side structure, we evaluate the supply structure of urban real estate from the product level and the regional level in China. We reveal the balance feature, adequacy feature, regional feature, and timing characteristic of the urban real estate supply structure by analyzing the coupling and coordination relationship between residential, office and commercial real estate. The coupling coordination model be improved to test the data of 2005-2017, the final results shows that: 1) The balance feature is greater than the adequacy feature, but the balance and adequate degree is relatively low as a whole and appearing standing urban difference; 2) The balance and adequacy of real estate has obvious regional features that the cities in the northwest, southwest, and northeast are weaker than the eastern region, and the central cities of the national urban agglomeration are stronger; 3) The difference between cities is smaller year by year, and the overall trend is that the real estate is getting steadily and healthily. We suggest that improving the coordination between residential, office and commercial at this stage can optimize the supply structure of urban real estate in China.