隐含非线性退化设备的剩余寿命在线预测方法

随机退化设备在实际运行中会产生非线性、隐含性等问题,对其剩余寿命预测会产生不确定性影响。现有剩余寿命预测方法尚未系统研究隐含非线性退化建模及相应的剩余寿命分布。因此,采用Wiener过程,建立了隐含双重非线性退化模型;利用设备现场监测数据,更新了隐含状态的后验分布;利用全概率公式,基于首次达到失效阈值的时间分布推导出设备剩余寿命分布;基于激光器实测退化数据设定仿真参数,对所提方法的正确性和合理性进行了对比验证。

Online prediction method of remaining useful lifetime for implicit nonlinear degradation equipment

Stochastic degradation equipment will produce the problems of nonlinearity and implicitness in actual operation, which will cause uncertainty on the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction. Existing RUL prediction methods have not systematically studied implicit nonlinear degradation modeling and corresponding RUL distribution. The Wiener process is used to build the implicit dual-nonlinear degradation model. The online monitoring data of equipment is used to update the posterior distribution of implicit states. By using the full probability formula, the RUL distribution is derived based on the first hitting time (FHT) distribution. The simulation parameters are set based on the degradation data of the laser, which verifies the accuracy and rationality of the proposed method.