| 复杂系统稀异事件预测模型的自组织方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李天民,ИвахненкоА.Г..复杂系统稀异事件预测模型的自组织方法[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),1999(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李天民 ИвахненкоА.Г. |
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| 作者单位： | 华中理工大学计算机科学与技术学院(李天民)，乌克兰科学院控制论研究所(ИвахненкоА.Г.) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一类预测模型的一种自组织方法,这类模型适用于预测复杂系统中稀异事件的发生.为便于利用GMDH型算法来建立预测模型,引进了迟滞自变量的概念.一个关于某水域结冰日期的预测实例证实了该方法的有效性
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| 关 键 词： | 复杂系统 稀异事件 预测模型 建模自组织方法 GMDH型算法 |
A Self Organizing Method for Modeling of Forecasting Models of Rare Events in Complex Systems |
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| Li Tianmin,Ivakhnenko A. G..A Self Organizing Method for Modeling of Forecasting Models of Rare Events in Complex Systems[J].JOURNAL OF HUAZHONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.NATURE SCIENCE,1999(Z1). |
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| Authors: | Li Tianmin Ivakhnenko A G |
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| Institution: | Li Tianmin Ivakhnenko A. G. |
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| Abstract: | A self organizing method for modeling of a class of forecasting models is proposed. The model is used to forecast the occurrence of rare events in complex systems. A notion of varying indexation for delayed argument is introduced to synthesis forecasting models according to the GMDH type algorithm. The method efficiency is shown in the example of forecasting data of a water body region freezing. |
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| Keywords: | complex system rare event forecasting model of self organizing method of modeling GMDH type algorithm |
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