人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响研究——基于最优增长模型的理论分析与实证检验

本文放松效用贴现因子不变假设,认为人口老龄化可以通过改变效用贴现因子来对经济系统的平衡增长路径产生影响.如果不考虑技术进步,随着人口老龄化程度加重,代表性消费者对未来的重视程度将会降低,导致稳态消费水平降低.如果考虑技术进步,老龄化虽然可以通过效用贴现因子减低消费水平,但也可能提高技术进步,进而提高人均消费水平.基于CHARLS 2013年度的全国调研数据,实证结果表明家庭财务状况与消费水平正相关,较高的收入和资产可以提高消费的水平,这一关系在分组稳健性检验和个人资产、攀比效应稳健性检验中均成立.年龄与消费水平负相关,但在高龄老人中这一关系可能不显著.身体越健康的老人消费水平越低,受教育程度较高的居民和老龄居民均有相对较高的消费水平.

Influence of population aging on residents' consumption in China: Theoretical analysis and empirical test based on optimal growth model

Based on the optimal growth model, the constant utility discount factor hypothesis was relaxed and population aging could change the time preference thus influence the balanced growth path of the economic system. Without considering technological progress, the representative's attention to the future would be lower with the degree of population aging, resulting in a reduction in the steady consumption. With technological progress in economic system, although population aging process could reduce consumption by time preference, it might promote the technological progress, thereby improving the per capita consumption level. Using the CHARLS 2013 national research data, this article verified the hypothesis proposed by theoretical analysis. Empirical research showed that family financial situation would be positive related to consumption level which means higher income and family assets could raise the consumption level. The relationship would hold in the packet robustness test, personal assets robustness test and comparisons effect robustness test. Age should be negative related to consumption level, but this may not be significant for those who are very old. The elderly who may be healthier tend to consume less while those who were highly educated would have higher consumption level.