不同气候区潜在蒸散发全局敏感性分析

基于Penman-Monteith公式,运用全局敏感性方法分析我国4个气候区12个气象站潜在蒸散发对最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、风速和日照时数的敏感性。结果表明:(a)不同气候区及不同季节潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性排序存在差异。夏季日照时数对潜在蒸散发影响最大;冬季最高气温、相对湿度和风速比较敏感;最低气温在全年各季节均不敏感。(b)从中温带半湿润地区→高原温带半干旱区→北亚热带湿润地区→南亚热带湿润地区,日照时数对潜在蒸散发的影响逐渐增强,风速对潜在蒸散发的影响逐渐减弱。(c)全局灵敏度与局部灵敏度方法分析结果具有很大差异,局部法分析对潜在蒸散发影响的气象因子敏感性排序与气象因子取值有关。

Global sensitivity analysis of potential evapotranspiration indifferent climatic regions

Based on the Penman-Monteith equation, the sensitivities of potential evapotranspiration to the maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were analyzed using the global sensitivity method at 12 meteorological stations in four climatic regions of China. The results indicate that(a)ranks of the sensitivity of the potential evapotranspiration to meteorological factors were different in various climatic regions and seasons. Sunshine duration had the greatest influence on potential evapotranspiration in summer, while the maximum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were sensitive in winter, and the minimum temperature was insensitive throughout the year. (b)From the middle temperate and semi-humid area to the plateau temperate semi-arid area, north subtropical humid area, and south subtropical humid area, the impact of sunshine duration on potential evapotranspiration presented an increasing tendency, and the impact of wind speed on potential evapotranspiration decreased. (c)The results were significantly different with use of the global and local sensitivity methods, and the ranking of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological factors with use of the local method was related to the selected values of the meteorological factors.