基于影响因子数据年际分类的太湖典型口门流量估算方法

基于太湖典型口门瓜泾口站1966—2014年(1989—2005年缺)的流量、水位、降水及周围站点水位等数据,采用多元线性回归分析法构建太湖流量估算模型。采用聚类分析方法,对流量的影响因子年际序列矩阵进行相似分类,找出与目标年(待估算流量的年份)相似的年份,然后依据相似年份数据率定回归模型参数。通过与基于常系列数据建立的回归模型进行比较发现,基于相似年份数据建立的回归模型的估算精度更高。

Method for estimation of discharge at typical entrance of TaihuLake based on annual classification of impact factor data

Based on discharge, water level, and precipitation data at the Guajingkou Station and water level data at surrounding stations from 1966 to 2014(with data missing from 1989 to 2005), a model for estimation of discharge in Taihu Lake was established with multiple linear regression. The annual sequence matrixes of the impact factors of the discharge were classified using clustering analysis according to the similarity, the years similar to the objective years were determined, and, finally, the regression model parameters were calibrated based on the data from similar years. Compared with the regression model based on the common series data, the regression model based on the data from similar years has a higher accuracy.