| 利率政策对房价影响的实证研究:1998—2009 |
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| 引用本文： | 董藩,厉召龙.利率政策对房价影响的实证研究:1998—2009[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2011(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 董藩 厉召龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学管理学院/房地产研究中心; |
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| 摘 要： | 从实证的角度分析货币政策对房价的影响。选择6个利率指标建立利率指标体系,利用主成分分析法计算利率指数。建立利率指数与房屋销售价格指数的A lmon滞后模型,模型的拟合优度为66%,说明利率可以解释房价波动的66%。模型表明利率与房价负相关,并且利率对房价的影响存在8个滞后期。对1998年1季度至2009年4季度房屋销售价格指数、利率指数、房地产开发投资和商品房销售额4个指标变化情况的分析表明,单一的、缺乏配套政策支持的利率政策对房价无法完全实现预期调控目标,要使其在房价调控中发挥应有作用,应该保持利率调控作用机制畅通,并使利率政策与其他货币政策、财政政策、土地政策等政策互相配合。
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| 关 键 词： | 利率 房价 协整检验 主成分分析 Almon滞后模型 |
Empirical Study on the Effect of Interest-Rate Policy on Housing Price:1998-2009 |
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| DONG Fan,LI Zhao-long.Empirical Study on the Effect of Interest-Rate Policy on Housing Price:1998-2009[J].Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition,2011(1). |
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| Authors: | DONG Fan LI Zhao-long |
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| Institution: | DONG Fan,LI Zhao-long(Real Estate Research Center,School of Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China) |
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| Abstract: | Monetary policy can have important effect on the real estate market.In an empirical view,this paper establishes an interest-rate index system that is comprised of six interest-rate single indexes.The principal-component analysis approach is used to analyze the interest-rate index system and a composite interest-rate index is obtained.It is known that both the composite interest-rate and the housing-sale-price index are smooth and there is a long-steady relation in this period.Both of the two index data are ... |
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| Keywords: | interest-rate index housing price Co-integration Test Principal Component Analysis Almon lag model |
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