戈壁土路基后期沉降预测方法及误差分析

各种沉降预测的研究已在软土路基进行，而对戈壁土路基这一特殊路基的沉降预测研究较少.以兰新第二双线新疆段工程实测沉降数据为研究对象，分别采用双曲线法、星野法、Asaoka法、GM（1,1）模型四种沉降预测方法，预测戈壁土路基的后期沉降并分析不同时间起点对预测结果的影响.研究表明，常用的双曲线法和Asaoka法的预测精度受预测时间起点影响较大，双曲线法建议恒载期5~6月后为时间起点，Asaoka法建议恒载期1~2月后为时间起点.不同时间起点对星野法和GM（1,1）模型影响较小，其中GM（1，1）模型预测结果最为精确.

On Prediction Method and Accuracy of Post-Construction Settlement for the Gobi Roadbed on Lanxin Passenger Line

A variety of studies about settlement prediction have been conducted in the soft soil ground but less study has been applied to the Gobi roadbed.Relying on the average sedimentation data in Lanxin railway embankment test section of the second double road,four settlement prediction models which are hyperbolic method,Hoshino method,Asaoka method,GM(1,1)model have been used to predict post-construction of the Gobi roadbed.The impact about different time point on the predicted results was analysed.The results show that Hyperbola method and Asaoka method of prediction accuracy influenced by the different time point.When using the hyperbolic method,the use of after five or six months of constant-load as the starting point is suggested.When using the Asaoka method,the use of after one or two months of constant-load as the starting point is suggested.The choice of different time point has little effect on the Hoshino method and GM(1,1) model.And the GM(1,1) model’s predictions is the most accurate.