| 基于粗糙集及蒙特卡洛的化工园区油库火灾爆炸突变级数评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 段在鹏,钱新明,王如君,黄平,刘振翼,吴宗之. 基于粗糙集及蒙特卡洛的化工园区油库火灾爆炸突变级数评价[J]. 北京理工大学学报, 2015, 35(S2): 78-82 |
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| 作者姓名： | 段在鹏 钱新明 王如君 黄平 刘振翼 吴宗之 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室, 北京 100081;福州大学环境与资源学院, 福建福州 350116,北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室, 北京 100081,中国安全生产科学研究院, 北京 100012,北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室, 北京 100081,北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室, 北京 100081,中国安全生产科学研究院, 北京 100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"十二五"科技支撑计划(2012BAK13B01) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过应用基于粗糙集的突变级数方法和蒙特卡洛指标打分方法实现较为客观的油库安全评价,以突变级数理论作为评价方法主体,实现无权重客观评价,因为突变级数方法对于评价指标数目有要求,故对于指标超过要求数目的指标层,应用粗糙集理论实现其指标约简;专家打分阶段选择性采用"给出得分区间"、"给出得分分布"以及"精确打分"等任意一种方法实现打分,之后结合蒙特卡洛模拟产生服从给定区间或分布的随机得分,从而实现指标打分的客观化;汇总蒙特卡洛方法产生的多组突变级数评价结果,分析并得到评价等级.
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| 关 键 词： | 安全技术及工程 突变级数 评价 粗糙集 蒙特卡洛 化工园区 油库 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-07-29 |
Catastrophe Progression Fire and Explosion Evaluation of Chemical Industry Park Oil Depot Based on Rough Set and Monte-Carlo Simulation |
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| DUAN Zai-peng,QIAN Xin-ming,WANG Ru-jun,HUANG Ping,LIU Zheng-yi and WU Zong-zhi. Catastrophe Progression Fire and Explosion Evaluation of Chemical Industry Park Oil Depot Based on Rough Set and Monte-Carlo Simulation[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2015, 35(S2): 78-82 |
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| Authors: | DUAN Zai-peng QIAN Xin-ming WANG Ru-jun HUANG Ping LIU Zheng-yi WU Zong-zhi |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;College of Environment and Resources, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350116, China,State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China,China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China,State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China,State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China and China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China |
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| Abstract: | The rough set and the Monte-Carlo index score method were used in this paper for objective evaluation of oil depot safety. The catastrophe progression theory was mainly used to achieve non-weight objective evaluation. Because the catastrophe progression method has requirements on numbers of evaluation indexes, the rough set theory was used to reduce indexes for index layer with excess numbers of indexes. The following methods were used to perform the evaluation during the expert marking, the score interval, the score distribution, and exact scoring, then Monte-Carlo simulation was utilized to get the random score for the given interval or distribution, to achieve the objectivity of index scores. Finally, multiple evaluation results of catastrophe progression where the Monte-Carlo method was used were gathered and then analyzed to get the evaluation grade. The method is feasible and proved to be useful by practical examples. |
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| Keywords: | safety technology and engineering catastrophe progression method evaluation rough set Monte-Carlo Simulation chemical industry park oil depot |
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