| A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA |
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| 作者姓名： | Jing HE Xikang CHEN Yong SHI |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Research Center on Data Technology and Knowledge Economy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 [2]Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China |
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| 基金项目： | This work was supported in part by National Nature Science Foundation of China （No. 70472074, No. 70131002, and No, 60474063） and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation. |
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| 摘 要： | China is experienciug from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological constructions, water conservancy management, etc. The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese goverument. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multipeziod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium （DCGE） model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources. First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holdiug-out in table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity. Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.
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| 关 键 词： | 可计算一般均衡 动力学 输入-输出分析 假定价格 水资源 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-08-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-08-08 |
A Dynamic Approach to Calculate Shadow Prices of Water Resources for Nine Major Rivers in China |
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| Jing HE Xikang CHEN Yong SHI.A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA[J].Journal of Systems Science and Complexity,2006,19(1):76-87. |
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| Authors: | Jing He Xikang Chen Yong Shi |
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| Institution: | (1) Research Center on Data Technology and Knowledge Economy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080, China;(2) Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080, China |
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| Abstract: | China is experiencing from serious water issues.There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes,reservoirs,floodgates,flood discharge projects,flood diversion projects,water ecological constrnction,water consevancy management,etc. The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese gov- ernment.This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a muhiperiod input-output optimizing model.Unlike previous approaches,the new model is based on the dynamic computable gen- eral equilibrium(DCGE)model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources. First,definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated.Second,the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949 2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holding output table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed.A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of searcity. Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices. |
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| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium dynamic input-output analysis nine major rivers shadow prices water development |
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