| 用AR模型建立变形预测模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 许国辉,张新长.用AR模型建立变形预测模型的研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2004,43(1):107-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许国辉 张新长 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广州大学土木工程学院,广东,广州,510405
2. 中山大学城市与资源规划系,广东,广州,510275 |
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| 摘 要： | 在用时间序列分析方法建立变形测量的预测模型时,基于动态数据系统方法的传统F检验定阶法,由于样本的随机性可能过早地退出对模型的循环检验,从而不能找到合适的预测模型.在探讨如何用AR模型建立变形测量预测模型的基础上,提出了一种改进的建模方法,并在实例的应用中取得了较好的效果.
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| 关 键 词： | AR模型 时间序列 预测 阶次 |
| 文章编号： | 0529-6579(2004)01-0107-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月8日 |
A Study of the Establishment of Deformation Forecasting Model with AR Model |
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| XU Guo-hui,ZHANG Xin-chang.A Study of the Establishment of Deformation Forecasting Model with AR Model[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2004,43(1):107-109. |
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| Authors: | XU Guo-hui ZHANG Xin-chang |
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| Abstract: | When time series analysis method is used to establish forecasting model of deformation survey, the traditional F-test rank determining method which is based on DDS method may withdraw from the cycle of testing model too early to find the appropriate model because of the random characteristics of the sample. Based on the establishment of forecasting model of deformation survey with AR model, a improved modeling method is proposed. |
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| Keywords: | AR model time series forecast rank |
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