| Abstract: | The invasive alien Cuban treefrog Osteopilus sepentrionalis is native to Cuba, the Bahamas and some adjacent islands. It was accidentally introduced to Florida, Puerto Rico and some Hawaiian islands, where it has become a predator and competes with native wildlife. We have used a maximum entropy ecological niche modelling approach to model its potential spread derived from current climate conditions as present in its native geographic distribution and we project that model into future climate change scenarios in order to detect new areas that are potentially threatened. Our model, applying current climatic conditions, suggested high probabilities of occurrence in countries around the Gulf of Mexico. Projections of potential distribution under future anthropogenic global warming scenarios suggest an overall extension of the potential distribution. If the predictive maps are interpreted as depicting the invasive potential of O. septentrionalis, strategies to prevent further invasion should focus on biosafety measures within the areas highlighted. |
