农牧结合生态系统管理的动力学机制

系统动力学是研究信息反馈系统动态行为的计算机仿真方法,它用于研究与规划非线性复杂系统的动态行为和相应的长期战略决策有其独特的优点。禹城市既是粮食生产优势产区,同时也是畜牧业生产的优势产区,种植业子系统和养殖业子系统是禹城市农业生态系统两个最主要的子系统,种植业和养殖业协调发展是农业生产持续健康发展的关键。通过建立系统动力学模型,模拟在资源、经济等因素影响下的禹城市农业生态系统发展动态,对种植业和养殖业子系统内部组分结构比例实施调控,经过反复运行试验,从中选出3种典型情景供决策者参考。图4,表1,参6。

The dynamic mechanism of management for mixed farming agro-ecosystem in Yucheng county

The system dynamics is a way that used to study the dynamic behavior of information feedback system by computer imitating,especially fit for the study the dynamic performance of non-linearity and complex systems,as well as the tactic layout and decision-making of them on long-term.The agro-ecosystem of Yucheng county agro-ecosystem is an advantage area where not only for crops growing and also for livestock raising.The main sub-subsystems of it are the cropping system and livestock system,and to harmonize the relationship between the two sub-systems is the key measure for sustaining healthy agricultural production.In the research,a dynamic model was used to simulate the processing of the agro-ecosystem development on Yucheng county scale,which is under the effect of some factors such as resources availability,economic effect,social demand and technology advance,and so on.By changing the component and structure of crops and (or) herds and run the model at the same time,three typical scenarios were screened for decision-makers.