城市轨道交通线路客流分布的实时预测方法

为准确计算轨道交通线路客流实时分布的各项参数,首先提出了各时段进站乘客的起讫点(OD)分布预测方法,然后在分析了站台与列车之间客流交换规律的基础上提出了站台—列车客流交互模型.最后,提出了轨道交通线路客流分布的实时算法,并通过实例验证了该算法的实用性.

Real time Forecast of Passenger Flow Distribution on Urban Rail Transit Line

Real-time forecast of passenger flow distribution on URT can provide scientific basis for operation management to adjust operation plan in real time. Also, it can provide pre-trip reference information for passengers. SO, this research has high application value in practice. To calculate all parameters of passenger flow distribution, firstly, this article raised a method to predict OD distribution of passengers who enters the platform in each time interval, then, after analyzing the law of exchanging passengers between platform and train, it advanced platform-train passenger exchanging model, and lastly, it put forward the real-time algorithm to predict passenger flow distribution on URT line. Finally, the article demonstrated the validity of the algorithms by an example.