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Monitoring and adjusting forecasts in the presence of additive outliers |
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| Authors: | Steven Hillmer |
| Abstract: | The effect of an additive outlier upon the accuracy of forecasts derived from extrapolative methods is investigated. It is demonstrated that an outlier affects not only the accuracy of the forecasts at the time of occurrence but also subsequent forecasts. Methods to adjust for additive outliers are discussed. The results of the paper are illustrated with two examples. |
| Keywords: | Additive outlier Forecast monitoring Outlier adjustment Extrapolative forecasts |