上海市经济增长与环境污染水平的关系分析

以环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论为基础,建立了上海市经济增长与环境污染水平的关系模型,得出的环境库兹涅茨曲线与传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状不同,呈“倒U型+U型”.其中第一阶段为1997年以前,环境质量总体恶化,1994～1995年为“倒U型”曲线的高峰;第二阶段为1997～2000年,工业结构有所调整,城市环境质量总体好转,1999～2000年出现“U型”曲线的低谷;第三阶段是自2000年以来,上海市的环境污染水平有所提高,曲线开始出现上升趋势.分析结果表明,引起曲线变化的原因与污染物排放的变化、产业结构的变动、环境保护资金的投入比重、环境保护政策等有着直接的关系。

Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation of Shanghai

Based on the theories of Environmental Kuznets Curve,the anthor established the relationship-model between economic growth and environmental deterioration of Shanghai.From the examination of the EKC for Shanghai,the relationship presents a inverted U U pattern,which is different from traditional EKC.The results show that the curve conforms to the three periods.The first,before 1997,the urban condition became worsened with the time.The Second,from 1997 to 2000,the environmental quality was gradually improved because the industrial structure had been adjusted.The third,but after 2000,the curve climbed up as the environmental deterioration trend was exasperated.Based on the research,it is considered that environmental policy,environmental awareness of residents and the spread of environmental technology are the main factors which lead to the environment improvement in Shanghai city.