中国交通运输碳减排区域划分

在国家碳排放分解研究的基础上,对中国交通运输碳减排区域划分进行研究,提出公平性、可行性、效率性及优先性4大原则。以行政区域为单位,构建碳减排区域划分指标体系,确定区域经济发展水平、交通运输业发展水平和交通运输碳排放水平3大影响因子,提出人均国内生产总值GDP、铁路网密度、公路网密度、货物周转量以及货运总量等10项指标,以2009年30个区域截面数据为样本,采用经济发展阶段理论、主成分分析法及系统聚类法对指标进行计算分析。研究结果表明：中国交通运输碳减排区域按照碳减排潜能划分为优化、重点、积极及限制碳减排4类区域;碳减排潜能呈从东部向西部递减的变化趋势;东部沿海地区的碳减排潜能最大,是碳减排的关键区域。

Region division in China for transportation carbon emission reduction

Based on the duty decomposition of carbon emission in China,the regional division in China for transportation carbon emission were studied.The basic four principles of equity,feasibility,efficiency and priority were put forward.Taking administrative division as the unit,the index system of transportation carbon emission reduction was built.Three major impact factors were determined,including the level of regional economic development,the level of transportation development and the level of transportation carbon emission.Ten major indicators such as per capita GDP,rail network density,road network density,freight turnover,freight volume,FKT,total freight were proposed.Taking the 30 regional cross-section data in 2009 for the sample,the indicators were calculated through the using of economic development theory,principal component analysis(PCA) and hierarchical clustering method.The results show that the transportation carbon emission regions in China can be divided into four classes,such as optimization regions,key regions,positive regions and restricted regions.There is a trend that the potential of carbon emission reduction decreases from east to west.The greatest potential for carbon emission reduction is up to the eastern coastal regions,which is the key of transportation carbon emission in China.