南水北调中线工程供水量风险分析

对南水北调中线工程的供水量进行分析计算，提供各供水区供水量的概率分布函数及其参数，为今后进一步进行工程供水效益的风险分析提供了基础。同时，根据已有的研究成果，在适当考虑水源区水资源利用情况以及供水区当地各种水源合理调度等主要影响因素的基础上，采用多变量AR（1）随机模型，对中线工程水源区的可调水量及各供水区的缺水量进行联合模拟研究，并由模拟的长序列进行供需意义上的供水量风险计算。结果表明，各供水区供水量的概率分布，可近似采用正态分布函数描述；计算资料条件下，中线工程供需意义上的供水量风险值约为20％。

Risk Analysis on Water Supply Quantity for Middle-Line of South-North Water Transfer Project

The quantity of water supply is calculated for the middle line of the South North Water Transfer Project and the parameters of its probability distribution function are presented.In consideration of the utilization of water resources at source sites and reasonable allocation of various water sources at supply sites,a multi variable AR(1) stochastic model is applied to a long term simulation of both water supply at source sites and water shortage at each supply site.Finally a water supply risk analysis from the angle of demand supply is performed based on the simulation.It is shown that the probability distribution of water supply quantity of each site can be approximately described by a normal distribution function. The risk of water supply is about 20%.