基于Delphi法和分层模型的输电线路状态评价

输电线路的状态评价是制定检修计划的重要依据.现有的输电线路状态评价多是套用规程规定的固定权重,这在实际运用时难免数据僵硬、不便操作.本文研究了一种新的输电线路状态评价方法.在建立输电线路层次评价模型的基础上,按照Delphi法的要求,请58位输电领域的专家对层次评价模型中的8个线路单元和57个状态量分别进行了重要性排序,然后应用Delphi方法逐层统计计算专家排序中涉及到的不同元素的权重系数,最后,采用同一量度对2条输电线路进行打分,利用新的权重系数进行线路状态的综合评价,评价结果显示该评价方法更具有有效性和科学性.

State Evaluation of Power Transmission Line with Delphi Method Based on Hierarchical Model

The state evaluation of power transmission line is the important basis for the development of maintenance plans. The current state evaluation of power transmission line is not flexible and inconvenient to operate in actual application because the fixed weights set by rules are applied. A new state evaluation method for power transmission line is studied. In this method, a hierarchical model of state evaluation for transmission line is built first; and then according to the requirement of Delphi method,58 experts in the field of power transmission are asked to give the orders of the importance of 8 components and 57 criteria in the hierarchical evaluation model. Beside that, the weight coefficients of elements involved in the order given by experts are counted and calculated layer by layer with the Delphi method. At last, the same evaluation standard is used to grade 2 power transmission lines; and the comprehensive status evaluation of the line is gained according to the new weight coefficients. The evaluation results show that the evaluation method is more effective and more scientific.