船舶绕避中热带气旋领域的研究

为提高船舶绕避热带气旋(TC)的安全性,针对由于TC警报区域信息不完整以及TC预报误差所致的TC周围危险区域不确定性导致TC中心未来落入概率圆概率过小问题,提出TC领域的概念及其确定方法.该方法参考航海技术中船舶领域的概念,借鉴了多位远洋船长绕避TC的丰富经验,给出了确定TC领域的实例.实验结果表明,该方法可较为迅速、有效地确定船舶绕避TC距离或TC中心附近危险区域,为选择绕避TC方案提供重要的科学定量分析的参考.

Research on tropical cyclone domain for ship to bypass tropical cyclone

The existing methods for accurately predicting tropical cyclone(TC) often encounter such problems as the incomplete information in warning area and uncertain dangerous area around TC,which lead to the probability of TC centre falling into the probability circle in future too little.The concept of TC domain and its determination method were presented.The method considered concept of ship's domain,and the rich experience from captains in bypassing tropical cyclone was used.Experimental results show that the method can determine the distance of ship bypassing TC or the dangerous areas around TC quickly and effectively,which provide scientific and quantitative references in choosing the best route for ships to bypass tropical cyclone.