基于部分线性模型研究空气臭氧含量与气象因素的关系

针对空气中臭氧含量增加对人体健康和生态环境均产生较大影响,而低空大气中臭氧污染日益恶化这一问题,就空气中臭氧含量提出部分线性模型。研究其与相关气象影响因素之间的关系,包括每日最高温度、太阳辐射和风速,并结合核方法和自助法得到臭氧含量均值估计和重要分位数估计,为空气质量监测和预测提供部分理论依据;结果表明空气中臭氧含量与每日最高温度和风速线性相关,与太阳辐射非线性相关,且回归估计函数随太阳辐射整体呈"S"型增长,臭氧含量均值为70. 58 ppb,它的10%、25%、50%、75%和90%分位数分别为42. 98 ppb、58. 64 ppb、71. 84 ppb、85. 49 ppb和96. 30 ppb。

Exploring the Relationship between Air Ozone Content and Meteorological Factors Based on Partial Linear Model

The increase of ozone content in the air has a great impact on human health and ecological environment,and the deterioration of ozone pollution in the low altitude atmosphere has already aroused great concern of the people of the world. Therefore,for the ozone content in the air,a partial linear model is proposed to study the relationship between it and related meteorological factors,including daily maximum temperature,solar radiation and wind speed,and the model is combined with nuclear method and bootstrap method to estimate the mean ozone content and important quintile,which provide some theoretical basis for air quality monitoring and prediction. The results show that the ozone content in the air is linearly correlated with the daily maximum temperature and wind speed,and is non-linearly correlated with solar radiation. The regression estimation function increases with solar radiation as a whole in the form of "S". The average ozone content is 70.58 PPb,its 10%,25%,50%,75% and 90% quantiles are 42.98 PPb,58.64 PPb,71.84 PPb,85.49 PPb and 96.30 PPb respectively.