城市住宅产业发展系统动力学研究--以南京市为例

针对住宅产业发展所具有的复杂系统特征，采用系统动力学方法，对其进行结构和因果关系分析，将城市住宅系统划分为土地供应、住宅供应、住宅需求和住宅价格4个子系统，通过各层次要素的反馈关系，建立城市住宅产业发展系统动力学模型，并以南京市为例进行实证研究．在通过模型有效性验证后，对近期南京市住宅产业发展进行了分析和预测，并通过政策调控参数实验了政策变化对住宅市场发展的影响。从长远趋势来看，系统总的发展都将趋于稳定，表现出较强的自组织能力；针对目前房价上升过快的现实，从系统分析可以看出主要有以下方面的原因：①拆迁补给需求迫切；②城市居民改善住房的需求量大；③外来人口的购房需求上升；④在预期收益的刺激下，单位面积土地出让价格大幅上升．面对短期内住宅供给小于住宅需求的客观实际，根据模型结构的试验结果，提出了政策建议。

The Research on the Development of Urban Housing Industry Based on System Dynamics Model--A Case Study of Nanjing City

With the rapid development of the state economic and urbanization, the real estate market has also progressed rapidly, especially the urban house industry. Meanwhile, many problems in real estate should be researched, such as the higher and higher housing price in each city. Therefore, it is very important for the real estate in China to study urban housing industry and its development.Based on the typical complicated system characteristics, system dynamics (SD) model was used to simulate urban housing development in the present paper. According to systematic theory and cause_effect analysis of the complicated system, SD model of urban housing development was established. It is divided into 4 sub_systems which are land supply subsystem, housing supply subsystem, housing demand subsystem and housing price subsystem. Further detailed feedback structure is described in each subsystem according to real estate characteristics. Twenty_four parameters, such as land area, housing price, etc., are considered in the SD model. Subsequently Nanjing city was chosen as a case study. Following effective proof_test of historical SD model simulation, the housing development in Nanjing in near future was analyzed and predicted. That shows the housing price in Nanjing in near future will rise up slowly until 2008. Other important parameters, like land developing area, the amount of housing supply and demand, have also similar situation. Furthermore, the policy change effect on the housing industry is tested through policy control factors which are land policy, housing pre_selling, loan profit and housing taxi. As far as long_range tendency was concerned, the development tendency of the housing industry in Nanjing will incline to a stable situation which shows a fine self_organized capacity of the complicated system. Some basic reasons are analyzed aiming at the current conundrum of rapid increasing housing price of Nanjing and its tendency. These are following: first is the urgent housebreaking demand; second is the improvement demand of resident, third is the demand of floating population, and fourth is the increasing of anticipated incoming. In face of the housing supply gap, some policy suggestions are put forward in the last of the paper.