舰船结构风险评估

结构风险评估与决策技术是近年发展起来的一种新方法，是结构系统可靠性方法与结构损伤冗余设计的合理延伸与综合．本文的目的在于探讨舰船结构风险评估的理论方法，建立一个适合于舰船结构风险评估的理论框架，提供实施舰船结构在几个主要灾害方面的风险评估思路，为进一步研究确立一条主线．文中应用风险评估技术，主要是量化的风险评估（ＱＲＡ）方法，对舰船结构系统进行灾害识别、因果分析和风险计算，涉及结构风险评估的几个方面．评估结果包括当前结构的风险水平和风险费用，以及所能承受的基于安全准则的最大事故载荷两方面．还对巡逻艇结构风险评估作了简要讨论．

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Strategies for Fighting Ship Structures

As an improvement and synthesis of structural system reliability method and damage tolerance design, the methodology of structural risk assessment and decision making analysis are being developed in recent years. Application of system risk assessment in the field of naval architecture and ocean engineering is paid more attention to. This paper mainly studies and discusses theoretical method of risk assessment for fighting ship structures, and presents a theoretical framework of quantified risk assessment strategies and theoretical method suitable for the assessment using risk assessment techniques. The results include risk level, risk cost and maximum accident load based on safety criteria of current structures. Some basic aspects of risk assessment are discussed and reviewed for further study. The application of presented method to a patrol boat structure is also implemented briefly.