| 无偏灰色预测模型递推解法及其优化 |
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| 引用本文： | 石斌,刘思峰,党耀国,王正新.无偏灰色预测模型递推解法及其优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(8):1532-1538. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石斌 刘思峰 党耀国 王正新 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院,南京 210016;
2. 浙江师范大学 经济与管理学院, 金华 321004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(71071077); 国家社科重点项目(08AJY024); 教育部博士点基金(200802870020); 南京航空航天大学基本科研业务费专项科研项目(NZ2010006) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统灰建模由差分方程向微分方程跳跃而导致误差的问题,提出了无偏灰色预测模型的 递推解法,给出了不同初始条件下无偏灰色模型递推预测公式.在此基础上,进一步研究了在两 种准则下初始条件的优化问题,结果表明,同一准则下两种优化模型的模拟预测值相等,且都能 获得较高的模拟、预测精度.最后以实例验证了该方法的有效性与实用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 无偏灰色模型 递推解法 优化 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-09-02 |
Recursive solution to unbiased grey model and its optimization |
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| SHI Bin,LIU Si-feng,DANG Yao-guo,WANG Zheng-xin.Recursive solution to unbiased grey model and its optimization[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2011,31(8):1532-1538. |
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| Authors: | SHI Bin LIU Si-feng DANG Yao-guo WANG Zheng-xin |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China |
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| Abstract: | As there are some jumping errors from the differential equation to differential equation in traditional grey modeling,this paper proposed recursive solution to unbiased grey model based on the unique expression of such models.It deduced prediction formulas of unbiased grey model under different initial conditions with the recursive method.On this basis,further study of the optimization problem under two criteria has been done.The results show that both the optimal models under the same criteria have the sam... |
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| Keywords: | unbiased grey model recursive solution optimization forecast |
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