| 基于情景的装备发展战略环境分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈俊良,王长春,陈超. 基于情景的装备发展战略环境分析方法[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2011, 31(9): 1816-1824. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2011)9-1816 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈俊良 王长春 陈超 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院信息系统工程重点实验室, 长沙 410073 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20104307120020); 国家自然科学基金(71071160) |
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| 摘 要： | 未来战略环境分析是正确制定装备发展战略的前提条件. 提出了基于情景的武器装备发展战略环境分析方法. 方法分三阶段: 首先通过识别未来战略环境动力因素及其输出, 构建未来战略环境空间; 其次主观评价因素输出之间的相容性, 在此基础上根据建立的目标规划模型计算情景概率; 最后根据情景相容性指标和情景概率选择合理情景集合, 并对合理情景集合进行分簇. 以某类装备发展战略环境分析为例, 说明了方法的可行性和有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 装备发展战略 未来战略环境 情景 目标规划 情景选择 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-11-12 |
Scenario-based method of strategy environment analysis for equipment development |
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| CHEN Jun-liang,WANG Chang-chun,CHEN Chao. Scenario-based method of strategy environment analysis for equipment development[J]. Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice, 2011, 31(9): 1816-1824. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2011)9-1816 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Jun-liang WANG Chang-chun CHEN Chao |
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| Affiliation: | Science and Technology on Information Systems Engineering Laboratory, College of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China |
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| Abstract: | The analysis of future strategy environment is the premise of planning equipment development strategy.This paper proposed a method of future strategy environment analysis for equipment development based on scenarios.The proposed method consists of three stages.The first stage is to identify the factors which have impact on the future strategy environment and its outcomes,and to construct the space of future strategy environment based on these factors.The second stage is to evaluate subjectively the consiste... |
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| Keywords: | equipment development strategy future strategy environment scenario goal programming scenario selection |
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