模糊动态贝叶斯可靠性分析方法及其在动车制动系统中的应用

针对动车制动系统的故障发生率具有模糊不确定性以及实际工作环境中故障的发生包含动态性特点,运用三角模糊数和扩展原理来表示底事件故障率,将动态离散时间贝叶斯网络模型与故障树模型相结合,分析获得动态贝叶斯网络叶节点的模糊故障率和各根节点的后验概率。解决了不确定条件下的动态系统可靠性分析问题,对兰新客专线路上运行的动车组的制动空气供给系统进行分析,获得了系统的可靠度预测曲线和薄弱环节,为该路线上运行动车的制动系统针对故障特点制定相应的检修和维护方案提供了理论依据。

Method for analyzing fuzzy dynamic Bayesian reliability and its application in motor vehicle brake system

Fuzzy uncertainty and dynamics are characteristics of failure rate in actual working environment of the motor train brake system. In this paper, the triangular fuzzy numbers and the extension principle are employed to represent the bottom event fault rate. By combining the dynamic discrete time Bayesian network model with the fault tree model, the fuzzy fault rate and the posterior probability of the root nodes of the dynamic Bayesian network nodes are obtained, solving the problem of reliability analysis of dynamic system under uncertain conditions. The method has been applied to analyze the operation of braking air supply system of Lanzhou passenger dedicated lines and the reliability prediction curves and the weak line of the system are obtained, which provides a theoretical basis for the maintenance plan of the braking system according to the fault characteristics.