长三角中心城市社会经济-生态环境-旅游产业协调发展时空演化及影响因素 ——基于面板数据的空间计量分析

在构建社会经济-生态环境-旅游产业协调发展评价指标体系的基础上，运用协调发展评价模型测算长三角中心城市2008—2017年社会经济、生态环境、旅游产业三系统的协调度，以重心模型、标准差椭圆模型分析其时空演化，并运用空间计量模型探究其影响因素. 研究结果表明:(1)在时间上，长三角中心城市三系统协调发展呈现为波动上升的发展态势，但热点城市范围在研究期内相对固定；在空间上，重心逐渐向西北方向移动，并且始终保持“东南-西北”分布格局. (2)三系统协调发展具有显著的全局空间正相关性及相对稳定的空间聚类格局，并存在显著的空间溢出效应. (3)市场驱动、交通通达、外商投资、劳动聚集、资源禀赋和旅游规模对该区域三系统协调发展具有显著的促进作用，而环境规制与旅游效益的影响系数则显著为负.

The Spatio-temporal Evolution of Coordinated Development of Social Economy,Ecological Environment and Tourism Industry in Central Cities of the Yangtze River Delta and the Associated Factors: A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data

Based on the evaluation index system of coordinated development of social economy, ecological environment and tourism industry, the coordination degree of the three systems in the central cities of the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2017 is measured with the coordinated development evaluation model. The spatio-temporal evolution is analyzed with the gravity center model and the standard deviation ellipse, and the related factors are explored with the spatial econometric model. The following results are obtained. First, the coordinated development of the three systems in the central cities of the Yangtze River Delta presents a fluctuating upward trend in time, but the scope of hot cities is relatively fixed. In terms of space, the center of gravity gradually moves to the northwest, and the distribution pattern of "southeast-northwest" is always maintained. Second, the coordinated development degree has significant positive correlation of global space, a relatively stable spatial clustering pattern and a significant spatial spillover effect. Third, market driving, traffic accessibility, foreign investment, labor aggregation, resource endowment and tourism scale have significant promoting effects on the coordinated development of the three systems in this region, while the impact coefficient of environmental regulation and tourism effect is significantly negative.