| 路基深层水平位移预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭云开,程刚,谢腾,乐小勇.路基深层水平位移预测方法[J].长沙理工大学学报(自然科学版),2012(2):19-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭云开 程刚 谢腾 乐小勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省科技计划重点资助项目(2010WK4003) |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了多种位移预测方法,并建立了相应的预测模型,用于水平位移预测.参照后验差比值C和小误差概率P等级划分标准,结果表明,GM（1,1）模型用于路基水平位移预测是可行的,该模型预测趋势与实测值一致,预测精度要高于对数曲线拟合法,稳定性要高于指数平滑法.
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| 关 键 词： | 路基工程 水平位移预测 GM（1 1）模型 指数平滑法 皮尔曲线 后验差比值C |
Prediction method of subgrade deep horizontal displacement |
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| GUO Yun-kai,CHENG Gang,XIE Teng,YUE Xiao-yong.Prediction method of subgrade deep horizontal displacement[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2012(2):19-24. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yun-kai CHENG Gang XIE Teng YUE Xiao-yong |
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| Institution: | (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410004,China) |
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| Abstract: | The study on subgrade deep are studied horizontal displacement is not sufficient.Several displacement prediction methods,and matching prediction models is built to predict horizontal displacement.Referring to the posteriori error ratio and small error probability,we get the following results.GM(1,1) model is suitable for predicting the subgrade horizontal displacement,and the trend of GM(1,1) model is consistent with actual values.Its accuracy is higher than the logarithmic curve fitting and the stability is better than the exponential smoothing model. |
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| Keywords: | subgrade engineering horizontal displacement prediction GM(1 1)model exponential smoothing model pearl curve aposteriori error ratioC |
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