冰碛湖库容数学模型的计算方法

全球气候的变暖致使冰湖溃决灾害频繁发生,严重威胁高原地区人民生命财产安全,随之对于冰湖溃决的研究也愈发深入,冰湖库容量作为冰湖研究基础参数,对冰湖危险性评价、冰湖溃决洪峰流量以及模拟洪水演进具有不可代替的作用。计算冰湖库容的方法主要有实地测量和冰碛湖库容计算公式,由于冰碛湖多位于高山极高山地区,对每个冰湖进行实地测量难以实现,传统冰湖库容的计算方法是基于大量冰湖参数与冰湖库容的统计关系,建立冰碛湖库容经验公式,虽然其拟合优度相对较高,但其相关性只能衡量冰碛湖面积和冰碛湖库容在统计规律上的一致性,对于精确计算冰碛湖库容仍有难以完成。本文通过文献资料整理、结合实地考察对湖盆形态模拟分析,将典型冰碛湖湖盆分为三段,通过模拟建立数学模型,以冰湖面积为约束条件,抽象成数学中的曲面立体模型,分别计算其形态体积,由此推算出计算冰湖体积的表达式V=0.0717w²l (w-冰碛湖湖宽;l-冰碛湖整体长度),并利用该模型验证了公式的有效精确性,为我国喜马拉雅山地区冰碛湖库容计算提供理论参考。

Discussion on calculation method of storage capacity of moraine dammed lake

The global warming of the climate has caused frequent occurrences of glacial lake outbursts, which seriously threaten the safety of people"s lives and property in the plateau areas. The research on glacial lake outburst has become more and more in-depth. The capacity of glacial lakes is the basic parameter of glacial lake research, and the danger of glacial lakes Sexual evaluation, torrential flooding peak flow and simulated flood evolution have an irreplaceable role. The methods for calculating the storage capacity of the glacial lake mainly include field measurement and the calculation formula of the ice lake capacity. Since the ice lake is mostly located in the high mountain area of the mountain, it is difficult to carry out field measurement for each glacier lake. The calculation method of traditional glacial lake storage capacity is based on the statistical relationship between a large number of glacial lake parameters and glacial lake storage capacity, and establishes the empirical formula of the hail lake storage capacity. Although its goodness of fit is relatively high, its correlation can only measure the area of the hail lake. The consistency of the statistical law with the glacial lake storage capacity is still difficult to complete for the accurate calculation of the ice storage capacity. In this paper, through the literature data compilation and field investigation, the typical analysis of the lake basin is divided into three sections. The mathematical model is established by simulation, and the surface of the ice lake is constrained to be abstracted into a three-dimensional model of the surface in mathematics. The morphological volume is calculated separately, and the expression V=0.0717w²l (w-lake width; l-lake overall length) for calculating the volume of the glacial lake is derived, and the formula is verified by the model. The effective accuracy provides a theoretical reference for the calculation of the storage capacity of the Hulu Lake in the Himalayas region of China.