中国潜在风力发电量的年际变化

结合观测资料和数值模拟结果, 基于GE 2.5 MW 风机的功率曲线, 分析1982-2006 年中国大陆陆地上潜在风电量的年际变化。结果表明, RegCM3 模式风速、观测插值风速和两者平均风速对应的 25 年平均年潜在风电量分别为每年 25, 2.5 和11 PWh, 均超过中国2030 年预期电力需求的20% (2 PWh)。三者年潜在风电量的相对标准差分别为 3%, 8%和 5%, 相对极差分别为 15%, 33%和 23%, 年际变化较大。由于风电和电力需求的季节性不匹配以及风电较大的年际变化, 若仅依靠风电, 在夏季容易出现电力缺口, 意味着需要大量后备发电机组, 这将提升发电总成本, 降低风电减排效益。

Interannual Variability of Wind Energy Potential in China

Based on the combined data of observations, RegCM3 model and the power curve of GE 2.5 MW wind turbine, the interannual variability of wind energy potential (WEP) over 1982-2006 in China is analyzed. It is calculated that the WEP of RegCM3 wind, observation-adjusted wind and their mean wind is 25, 2.5 and 11 PWh/a, all more than 20% of China’s expected electricity demand in 2030 (2 PWh/a). Their relative standard deviations of yearly WEP are about 3%, 8% and 5%, and their relative ranges of yearly WEP are 15%, 33% and 23%. Because of the seasonal variation of wind energy and electricity demand, power deficit could occur in summer if relying on wind energy only, resulting in a need of huge backup capacity that reduces the economic benefit and emission benefit.