飞行器被雷达发现概率的计算方法研究

给出了飞行器遭遇多雷达探测系统时被发现概率的计算方法。首先根据飞行器的RCS(RadarCross Section)模型、飞行航路、雷达系统的特征参数以及坐标,计算出各个分雷达对飞行器的探测次数以及各次探测的状态参数,进一步计算出各次瞬时探测概率。累积各次瞬时探测概率,计算出各个分雷达的发现概率。最后,根据数据融合准则,计算出多雷达探测系统对飞行器的发现概率。该方法充分考虑不同方位飞行器的RCS不同这一特点,比固定RCS的方法更加接近实战情况;用累积发现概率取代传统的瞬时探测概率,更能反映飞行器在整个航路上遭受探测的情况;把多个雷达视为一个探测系统,更适合于现代雷达探测系统的发展方向。实际算例表明该方法是有效和可行的。

Research on the Approach for Calculating the Probability of Detecting an Aircraft by Radar System

The purpose of this paper is calculating the detection probability of an aircraft traveling near an opponent multi-radar system.Based on the aircraft RCS(Radar Cross Section) model,flight route,radar character parameter and locations,detection times of sub-radars and detection state parameters are calculated.Further more;the instantaneous detection probabilities of each radar are given.Then,the accumulated detection probability is calculated.At last,multi-radar system detection probability is obtained.The method here takes into account the aircraft RCS changing with the different detection attitude;this is more precise than the method which considers the RCS as constant.The accumulated detection probability is used to replace the traditional instantaneous detection probability;so the result get here is the probability of the whole flight process.Taking multi-radar as a detection system is more suitable for the further development of radar.The numerical result shows that the method is effective and feasible.