东北区旱涝灾害特征分析及趋势预测

利用东北区1751～2000年旱涝灾害资料,分析了该区近250年来旱涝灾害演变的特征.根据气象因素和旱涝灾害的关系,引入了转移概率、太阳黑子相对数和厄尔尼诺方法,导出了未来旱涝灾害预报的方法和公式,对该区2001～2010年旱涝灾害趋势作了预测.结果显示,20世纪东北区旱涝灾害较以前都有所加重,尤其是干旱灾害.2001～2010年东北区会出现2次以上的干旱和1～2次的洪涝灾害,且2007年左右是发生洪涝灾害的危险期.该项研究为东北区实际防灾、减灾工作提供了参考.

Characteristics analysis and trend forecast of drought and flood in Northeast China

Based on the data of drought and flood disasters in Northeast China during 1751 to 2000,the characteristics of drought and flood disasters are analyzed.The relationship between the meteorological factors and the drought and flood disasters has been established,and three methods for forecasting the trends of floods and droughts,which are the transition probability,the phase of the sun activities and El Nino,are proposed.The future trends of drought and flood disasters for the period of 2001 to 2010 are forecasted.The results are summarized as follows: The drought and flood disasters in the 20th century are more serious than before,especially the times of the drought disasters have increased obviously than those in the 19th century.There will be more than 2 drought disasters and 1-2 flood disasters in Northeast China for the period of 2001-2010 and the critical period of flood disasters will be in about 2007.It has been proven to be an effective reference for guiding the practical flood hazard control and mitigation in Northeast China.