TPP将如何影响跨太平洋航线的海上运量

运用不完全信息动态博弈理论，建立了中美两国之间的不完全信息动态博弈模型，分析了亚太经济区，由美国主导的TPP（trans-pacific parlnership agreement）和由中国主导的FTAAP(free trade area of the asia-pacifc)之间的博弈。该博弈结果表明:未来中国和美国可能最终都选择FTAAP。依据派生需求理论，建立GDP和海上运输量的计量经济学模型，得到GDP与海上运输量之间的经济关系。结论认为中美贸易博弈的最终结果是:跨太平洋海上运输量将增加2.155×109 t载质量。

How TPP Will Affect Shipping Volumes on the Trans-Pacific Routes

Based on incomplete information dynamic game theory,through the establishment of dynamic games model of incomplete information between China and the United States,possible results of the game between the TPP dominated by the US and the FTAAP dominated by China in the Asia Pacific economic zone.The results of the game show that both China and the US may choose FTAAP in the end.Then based on the theory of derived demand,a quantitative economic model is applied in order to establish the relationship between GDP and shipping volumes.It is concluded that the Sino-US trade game will lead to an increase of 2.155×109 t of shipping volumes on the Trans-Pacific ocean routes.