基于阶段权和可能势的反导作战方案评估

针对反导作战方案评估的现实需求,提出了一种基于阶段权和可能势的方案评估方法.首先,在分析现有军事方案评估方法的基础上,提出了方案分段动态评估思想,并设计了阶段权度量公式;然后,构建了作战方案的评估指标体系,并结合相对确定可能势、相对乐观可能势、相对悲观可能势和广义势等度量,对反导作战方案评估方法具体环节进行了设计；最后,结合举例,对所提方法及其关键环节进行了验证分析.结果证明:所提方法不仅能有效解决反导作战方案评估问题,而且有助于指挥员做出带有偏好信息的优选决策.

Anti-missile Campaign Scheme Evaluation Based [JZ]on Phase Weight and Probability Potential

A new anti-missile campaign scheme evaluation method based on phase weight and probability potential is proposed. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing existing evaluation methods, the scheme phase dynamic evaluation idea is brought up and the phase weight measurement formula is designed. Moreover, the campaign scheme evaluation index system and index measurements are constructed; and combined with relative certain probability potential, relative optimism probability potential, relative pessimism probability potential and generalized potential, the detail steps of new method are designed. Finally, the performance of the new method and its detail steps are verified and analyzed, the result shows that the new method not only can solve the anti-missile campaign scheme evaluation problem, but also can help commander to make an optimization decision with preference information.