基于RM-K-means的储气库全生命周期风险量化分级评估方法

为保障地下储气库安全运行，发挥储气库在季节调峰和应急供气以及战略储备方面的重要作用，需对储气库密封、地面设施、井筒等风险展开分析，涉及设计、施工、运营全生命周期。传统风险评估方法中，风险矩阵法运用广泛，但存在主观性较强、风险等级界定模糊的问题。因此，本文提出基于RM-kmeans的储气库风险量化分级评估方法，引入复杂网络节点重要度，以某气藏型储气库为例，通过kmeans聚类算法辅助风险矩阵对全生命周期风险进行量化分级评估。结果表明，储气库设计期需重点关注组织管理，施工期需重点关注施工技术方案与人员的专业素质，运营期需重点关注设备完整性与运行工况。较传统风险矩阵法而言，基于RM-kmeans的方法对于高风险的分级能力提升100％，对低风险的分级能力提升62.3％，提高了风险评估的符合性，为风险矩阵提供量化数据支撑，为储气库全生命周期风险管理与事故预防提供辅助支持。

A quantitative risk assessment method based on RM-kmeans for the whole life cycle of gas storage reservoirs

In order to ensure the safe operation of underground gas storage and play an important role in seasonal peaking and emergency gas supply as well as strategic reserve, it is necessary to analyze the risks of gas storage seals, surface facilities and wellbores, which involve the whole life cycle of design, construction and operation. Among the traditional risk assessment methods, the risk matrix method is widely used, but there are problems of strong subjectivity and vague definition of risk level.Therefore, a quantitative grading assessment method for gas storage risk based on RM-kmeans was proposed, the complex network node importance was introduced.Taking a gas reservoir-type storage reservoir as an example, the quantitative grading assessment of the whole life cycle risk was performed by the RM-kmeans-based method. The results show that the focus should be on organisational management during the design phase, construction technology and professional quality of personnel during the construction phase, and equipment integrity and operating conditions during the operation phase. Compared with the traditional risk matrix method, the RM-kmeans-based method can improve the classification capability of high risks by 100% and low risks by 62.3%, which improves the conformity of risk assessment, provides quantitative data support for the risk matrix, and provides support for risk management and accident prevention throughout the life cycle of gas storage.