基于氮磷比的赤潮灾害危险度评估方法研究

 为了定量表示氮磷比对赤潮灾害危险度的影响，在赤潮藻类最大比生长速率的氮磷比耐受性模型和赤潮暴发基准细胞密度的基础上，建立了氮磷比与赤潮暴发时间的关系模型，并据此划分危险度等级且归一化得到危险度值，并以中肋骨条藻为例进行了应用分析。结果表明基于氮磷比的赤潮暴发时间模型受初始密度、氮磷比的影响，且随初始密度、氮磷比的变化呈倒高斯形态变化。依据赤潮藻类在不同氮磷比下的耐受特性，赤潮灾害危险度可划分为高危险度、中危险度、低危险度三个等级。在高危险度区，最大比生长速率大，赤潮暴发时间最短，赤潮发生的可能性最高；在中危险度区，最大比生长速率小，赤潮暴发时间长，赤潮发生可能性低；在低危险度区，最大比生长速率趋于初始比生长速率，赤潮暴发时间最长，赤潮发生可能性最低。

Study on Hazard Degree Assessment Method of Harmful Algal Blooms Disaster Based on N/P Ratios

To quantitatively expressed the effect between N/P ratios and hazard degree of harmful algal blooms disaster, based on the tolerance model of N/P ratios of specific growth rate and reference cell density of harmful algal blooms outbreak, Established the relational model between N/P ratios and the outbreak time of harmful algal blooms, obtained the rank and value of hazard degree, and has carried on the application to Skeletonema costatum The results showed that the outbreak time model of harmful algal blooms is affected by initial cell density and N/P ratios, the relationship of them represented reciprocal Gaussian morphology variation. According to the growth characteristics of harmful algal under different N/P ratios, hazard degree of harmful algal blooms disaster can be divided into high hazard degree, medium hazard degree and low hazard degree three ranks. In the high hazard degree, maximum specific growth rate is large, the outbreak time of harmful algal blooms is the shortest, the possibility of harmful algal blooms outbreak is the highest, in the medium hazard degree, maximum specific growth rate is small, the outbreak time of harmful algal blooms is long, the possibility of harmful algal blooms outbreak is low, in the low hazard degree, maximum specific growth rate is tended to the initial specific growth rate, the outbreak time of harmful algal blooms is the longest, the possibility of harmful algal blooms outbreak is the lowest.