三峡工程的技术风险分析

三峡工程能给社会带来的益处是多方面的。其中,主要贡献在于:(1)洪水控制,(2)发电,(3)导航系统的改善。然而,我们必须同时意识到三峡工程可能会引发着多方面的问题;这其中包括人口迁徙问题,文物破坏问题和生态环境问题。随着越来越多的焦点停留在三峡工程的社会问题上,非常遗憾的是,三峡工程的技术问题没有得到媒体应有的关注。事实上,大量的历史事件告诫我们:技术问题才是引发工程失败和导致生命财产流失的直接原因。客观地讲,在每一个看似不重要的技术问题后面都隐藏着一场灾难。一个看似宏伟壮观的大坝可能因为一个微小的技术缺陷而引发一场浩劫。从技术管理者的角度探讨了三峡工程的技术风险问题。

Risk Analysis of the Three Gorges Dam Project

The exposed and potential technical risks of the Three Gorges Dam Project, an unprecedented huge on-construction project in China are analyzed. There is no denying that the construction of the Three Gorges Dam could bring a range of benefits from many perspectives. The major benefits are: (i) Flood Control. (ii) Power Generation. (iii) Navigation improvement. However, the Three Gorges Dam Project also could bring about many problems and risks. Included are the relocation of a million people who live in areas to be submerged, the potential loss of many archeological artifacts, and the environmental disruption the dam will cause. With an increasing amount of attention being paid to the socially negative consequences of the Three Gorges Dam Project, it is a pity to see little research has been done on the technical risks. In fact, many historical stories reveal that technical failure of dam is the immediate source of hazard for human beings. It is no exaggeration to say that there is a hidden catastrophe behind every technical dam risk. A nice looking dam could lead to a tragedy due to a minor technical flaw.