| 货币供应量与物价水平、经济增长关系分析——以1984—2012年数据为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡芳娜,;毛海棠. 货币供应量与物价水平、经济增长关系分析——以1984—2012年数据为例[J]. 莆田高等专科学校学报, 2014, 0(4): 47-52 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡芳娜, 毛海棠 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]三明学院管理学院,福建三明365004; [2]中国人民银行南通中心支行,江苏南通226001 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省教育厅B类项目（JB13237S）; 三明学院科研基金项目（A201204/Q） |
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| 摘 要： | 以1984—2012年度货币供应量M2、物价指数CPI、国内生产总值GDP时间序列数据为基础,采用单位根检验、协整检验、脉冲响应分析等计量经济方法,分析货币供应量、物价水平和经济增长的关系。研究发现,物价指数CPI、国内生产总值GDP为一阶单整变量,货币供应量M2为二阶单整变量,三者之间存在着唯一的长期动态均衡关系。通过基于平稳性VAR模型的脉冲响应分析发现,货币供应量M2对国内生产总值GDP的推动作用在短期内有效,而对物价指数CPI的拉升作用是长期可持续的,且影响程度大于对国内生产总值GDP的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 货币供应量 物价 脉冲响应 VAR模型 |
Research on the Relationship of Money Supply,Price Level and Economic Growth---B ased on the A nnual D ata from 1984 to 2012 |
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| Affiliation: | CAI Fang-na, MAO Hai-tang (1. School of Management, Sanming University, Sanming Fujian 365004, China; 2. Nantong Central Branch of People＇s Bank of China, Nantong Jiangsu 226001, China ) |
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| Abstract: | The paper utilizes the unit root test, the co-integration test and the impulse response method to analyze the relationship of M2, CPI and GDP based on the annual data from 1984 to 2012. The empirical analysis indicates that CPI and GDPare integrated of order one. M2 is integrated of order two. There is a unique long run equilibrium among them ,verifying the theoretical logic of the implement of Chinese monetary policy. Through the impulse response analysis based on the stable VAR model, the paper finds that the impulseresponse of M2 to GDP is effective in the short term.However, the pulling up of M2 to CPIis sustainable over along period of time, with the degree of the influence of M2 to CPI greater than that of M2 on GDP. |
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| Keywords: | money supply price im pulse response VAR model |
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