核安全定量评估的模糊-证据推理方法

为科学地解决核安全评估中的多种不确定性问题,综合运用模糊数学理论和证据推理方法,给出了一种分析核安全并进行安全性定量评价的模糊评价-证据推理合成计算方法,该方法主要使用模糊评价技术与证据推理将系统故障模式从底层考查,运用层次结构的近次递归评价。结合某核武器系统安全性进行了定量评定。通过举例,验证了该评估方法的有效性,为核安全管理和决策提供了定量依据。

Fuzzy evidential reasoning algorithm for nuclear safety quantitative evaluation

For scientifically solving the problem of many uncertainness in nuclear safety evaluation synthetic using fuzzy mathematics theory and evidential reasoning method a fuzzy evaluation of analysing nuclear safety and safety quantitative evaluation is given. It is a synthetic calculative method with evidential reasoning and the quantitative evaluation is completed combined with the safety of certain nuclear weapon system .Using it the quantitative basis for nuclear safety management and decision is provided.